climate change central Asia You will simply read it and then write a review of it. Think of it as an article review where you submit a short overview (600-

climate change central Asia You will simply read it and then write a review of it. Think of it as an article review where you submit a short overview (600-700 words) of the article. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 188 (2014) 245–255
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Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/agee
Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia:
An integrated modeling approach
Ihtiyor Bobojonov a,∗ , Aden Aw-Hassan b
a
Department of Agricultural Markets, Marketing and World Agricultural Trade, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies
(IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany
b
Social, Economic and Policy Research Program, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), Amman, Jordan
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 5 July 2013
Received in revised form 2 February 2014
Accepted 23 February 2014
Available online 25 March 2014
Keywords:
Climate risk
Uncertainty
Drought
Crop model
Bio-economic model
a b s t r a c t
Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in
Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of
Central Asia are heterogenous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model (BEFM) is used for ex ante assessment of climate change
impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The BEFM is calibrated to 10 farming systems in Central
Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and
the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in
the simulations.
Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The
positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative
impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan
may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in
Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative
impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline
due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show
that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good
potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.
© 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).
1. Introduction
Central Asia covers an area of 400 million hectares, however,
only 20% of that is suitable for farming while the rest is deserts and
mountainous areas. Nevertheless, agricultural production forms
the backbone of Central Asian economies. Agriculture is the main
source of export revenues for these countries except the oil rich
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The contribution of agriculture to
GDP is lowest at 11% in Kazakhstan and highest at 38% in Kyrgyzstan
(Bucknall et al., 2003). Cotton exports significantly contribute to the
countries’ revenues. For instance, cotton fiber exports accounted
for about 18% of the total export revenues in Uzbekistan, as of 2004
(CEEP, 2005).
Many aspects of the agricultural sector, including specialization,
farm sizes, land ownership and agricultural production efficiency
have been undergoing steady transformation since the breakup of
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +49 345 2928 247; fax: +49 345 2928 299.
E-mail addresses: Bobojonov@iamo.de, ihtiyorb@yahoo.com (I. Bobojonov).
the Soviet Union (Pomfret, 2007; Spoor, 2007). Irrational water use
during the Soviet Union time have caused several problems in the
region including the disappearance of the once fourth largest lake
in the world, the Aral Sea (Glantz, 2005). Land degradation as an
effect of these improper policies is still a major problem in all Central Asian countries where land salinization affected about 12% of
the total irrigated area in Kyrgyzstan, 50–60% in Uzbekistan and
even more than 90% in Turkmenistan (Bucknall et al., 2003; CAREC,
2011). Reduction of the cropping areas in the irrigated lands has
been observed during the last decades, which often occurs due to
land degradation (Kariyeva and van Leeuwen, 2012). Uncertainties during the transition phase combined with land degradation
caused high rates of poverty in most of the regions in Central Asia.
More than 90% of the population living in the rural areas is defined
as poor (
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