NPS Natural Disaster Management In the Proposition NPS article (found in Course Documents), review the value of prepositioning disaster supplies ahead of a

NPS Natural Disaster Management In the Proposition NPS article (found in Course Documents), review the value of prepositioning disaster supplies ahead of a disaster. In each case presented, determine if the effort to move supplies made a significant impact on the success or failure of the event. 
This section describes several natural disasters that happened in the past as described in
the article. The response to the disaster is discussed effectively. 
Select one event and provide an example of an actionthat would have provided a better outcome for the disaster. Briefly explain how you came to that conclusion NPS-LM-11-188
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Strategies for Logistics in Case of a Natural Disaster
28 September 2011
by
Dr. Aruna Apte, Assistant Professor, and
Dr. Keenan D. Yoho, Assistant Professor
Graduate School of Business & Public Policy
Naval Postgraduate School
Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited.
Prepared for: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93943
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Strategies for Logistics in Case of a Natural Disaster
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Naval Postgraduate School,Graduate School of Business & Public
Policy,Monterey,CA,93943
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14. ABSTRACT
The need to effectively and efficiently provide emergency supplies and services is increasing all over the
world. We investigate four policy options? prepositioning supplemental resources, preemptive as well as
phased deployment of assets, and a surge of supplies and services?as potential strategies for responding to
a disaster. We illustrate the linkage between our four policy options and a disaster classification based
upon disaster localization (dispersed or local) and speed of disaster onset (slow or sudden). We summarize
our work by introducing a matrix that aligns logistics strategies with disaster types in order to assist
policymakers in their resource management decisions.
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The research presented in this report was supported by the Acquisition Chair of the
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Abstract
The need to effectively and efficiently provide emergency supplies and
services is increasing all over the world. We investigate four policy options—
prepositioning supplemental resources, preemptive as well as phased deployment of
assets, and a surge of supplies and services—as potential strategies for responding
to a disaster. We illustrate the linkage between our four policy options and a
disaster classification based upon disaster localization (dispersed or local) and
speed of disaster onset (slow or sudden). We summarize our work by introducing a
matrix that aligns logistics strategies with disaster types in order to assist policymakers in their resource management decisions.
Keywords: logistics, natural disaster, humanitarian assistance, humanitarian
aid, disaster response
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About the Authors
Dr. Aruna Apte has successfully completed various research projects, involving
application of mathematical models and optimization techniques that have led to over
20 research articles and one patent. Her research interests are in developing
mathematical models for complex, real-world operational problems using optimization
tools. She values that her research be applicable. Currently her research is focused in
humanitarian and military logistics. She has several publications in journals, such as
Interfaces, Naval Research Logistics, Production and Operations Management. She has
recently published a monograph on Humanitarian Logistics. Aruna has over twenty years
of experience teaching operations management, operations research, and mathematics
courses at the undergraduate and graduate levels. She has advised emergency planners
in preparing for disaster response. She is the founding and current president for a new
college (focus group) in Humanitarian Operations and Crisis Management under the
flagship academic professional society in her intellectual area of study, Production and
Operations Management Society.
Dr. Keenan Yoho’s primary research activities are in the area of analyzing alternatives
under conditions of uncertainty and resource scarcity. Keenan’s primary research
activities lie in the analysis of alternatives for capital purchases under conditions of
resource scarcity, supply chain management, risk analysis, humanitarian assistance and
disaster response, and resource management in environments that exhibit high degrees
of uncertainty.
Dr. Aruna Apte
Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, CA 93943-5000
Tel: 831-656-7583
Fax: (831) 656-3407
E-mail:auapte@nps.edu
Dr. Keenan D. Yoho
Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, CA 93943-5000
Tel: 831-656-2029
Fax: (831) 656-3407
E-mail: kdyoho@nps.edu
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NPS-LM-11-188
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Strategies for Logistics in Case of a Natural Disaster
28 September 2011
by
Dr. Aruna Apte, Assistant Professor, and
Dr. Keenan D. Yoho, Assistant Professor
Graduate School of Business & Public Policy
Naval Postgraduate School
Disclaimer: The views represented in this report are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy position of
the Navy, the Department of Defense, or the Federal Government.
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Table of Contents
I.
Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………. 1
II.
Literature Review …………………………………………………………………………. 5
III.
Disaster Life Cycles ……………………………………………………………………… 7
IV.
Disaster Classification ………………………………………………………………….. 9
V.
VI.
A.
Indian Ocean “Boxing Day” Tsunami of 2004 ………………………….. 10
B.
Haiti 2010 Earthquake …………………………………………………………. 11
C.
Hurricane Katrina ……………………………………………………………….. 12
D.
Influenza “Swine Flu” Epidemic of 2009 …………………………………. 12
Discussion …………………………………………………………………………………. 15
A.
Prepositioning …………………………………………………………………….. 15
B.
Proactive Deployment …………………………………………………………. 17
C.
Phased Deployment ……………………………………………………………. 18
D.
Surge Capacity …………………………………………………………………… 20
Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………. 21
List of References ………………………………………………………………………………… 25
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I.
Introduction
In 2009 there were 335 natural disasters reported worldwide that killed 10,655
persons, affected more than 119 million others, and caused over $41.3 billion in
economic damages (Vos, Rodriguez, Below, & Guha-Sapir. 2009). The number of
natural disasters reported between 1900 and 2010 has increased significantly and,
with it, the number of requests for aid and humanitarian assistance (see Figure 1).
While the trend in the number of disasters reported shows an increase, it is not clear
that there has been a commensurate response in terms of preparedness. The
United States Agency for International Development (USAID) reports that of all funds
used to support disaster operations, 90% are spent for response, whereas 10% are
spent on preparedness activities and investments and risk reduction (A. Giegerich,
personal communication, September 21, 2010). The United Nations estimates that
every dollar spent to prepare for a disaster saves seven dollars in disaster response
(United Nations Human Development Program, 2007).
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Figure 1. Number of Disasters Reported from 1900–2010
(EM–DAT, 2011)
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Although the objective of all the organizations and agencies involved in
humanitarian assistance is to reduce human suffering and casualties, the duration
and severity of the human toll during a natural disaster is largely dependent upon the
speed and scope of the response, which is often a function of the level of
preparedness that has been established prior to the disaster event. While there are
no internationally agreed upon metrics by which to judge or measure the
effectiveness of a response to a disaster, scholars working in the humanitarian and
disaster response research area have found that improvement is desirable (Apte,
2009; Van Wassenhove, 2006). An effective and efficient humanitarian response
depends “on the ability of logisticians to procure, transport and receive supplies at
the site of a humanitarian relief effort” (Thomas, 2003). In this research we focus on
the response to a disaster area in the form of distributing supplies, and strategies
that will enhance the effectiveness of such a response. For the purpose of this
research, we accept the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters’
(CRED) definition of disaster, which is “a situation or event which overwhelms local
capacity, necessitating a request to a national or international level for external
assistance.”
The unpredictability of the timing of a disaster, as well as the scope of its
human and material destruction, raises several serious questions for emergency
planners and first responders. For example, how can a state of supply
preparedness be established and maintained? How should adequate prepositioned
disaster relief inventory be established and sustained over time, to include the
rotation of perishable stocks? How can information regarding the location, quantity,
and condition of prepositioned inventory be shared, and what effect would this
information sharing have on the total investment of prepositioned stocks? Is
prepositioning the best strategy for all types of disasters? How reliable are the
potential supply lines if it is determined that supplies should be virtually stockpiled
(that is, a detailed list or database of supplies by type and quantity is created and
maintained, as well as reliable sources that can provide the supplies quickly)?
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Should the supplies be sourced locally or from outside the disaster zone? Answers
to these questions depend on the expected onset speed of the disaster, the volume
and weight of supplies to be moved, the expected magnitude of humanitarian relief
required, and the expected likelihood of a disaster in the area.
As part of our investigation we explore four policy options: (1) prepositioning
supplemental resources in or near the incident location; (2) proactive deployment of
assets in advance of a request; (3) phased deployment of assets and supplies,
analogous to the “just in time” inventory control philosophy practiced by many
commercial manufacturers; and (4) “surge” transportation of manpower and
equipment from locations outside the disaster area.
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II.
Literature Review
One of the major issues in a response supply chain in case of a natural
disaster is to coordinate the operations and relief inventories over a large number of
stages, locations, and organizations. This has to be done while providing the
emergency supplies and services to the affected population under extreme
conditions. Decisions regarding the types of provisions that should be
prepositioned, as well as their location, should be made well before a disaster strikes
in order to provide quick response. To some extent, without such a high level of
uncertainty and an adverse environment, it is similar to the core question in supply
chain management of coordinating activities and inventories over a spectrum of
stages of the supply chain and facility locations of the inventory (Schoenmeyr &
Graves, 2009).
In the private sector, it has been found that if each individual stage in a serialsystem of the supply chain operates with a designated base stock policy with service
guarantees, then the optimal safety stock strategy is to maintain inventory at certain
key locations, which results in separating the stages of the supply chain; this type of
policy allows each stage to operate independently by minimizing the need for
communication and coordination amongst players (Simpson, 1958; Graves &
Willems, 2002). Models available in supply chain management literature are
predominantly with unlimited capacity for storage. In cases where there is unlimited
capacity, the amount of safety stock needed is less than the level needed with
capacity constraint (Schoenmeyr & Graves, 2009).
The determination of the optimal placement of safety stock in a supply chain
has been addressed by Simpson (1958) and Schoenmeyr and Graves (2008), where
there are evolving or predetermined forecasts, and by Graves and Willems (2002),
where there is uncertain, as well as non-stationary, demand. This concept can
explain the response supply chain where there exists uncertainty for the quantity
required, as well as what is required (Apte, 2009; Ergun, Karakus, Keskinocak,
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Swann, & Villareal, 2009). Rawls and Turnquist (2010) developed a model for
determining the location and quantity of supplies that should be prepositioned when
there is uncertainty with respect to whether a disaster will occur and where it will
occur, and built upon this work by adding service quality constraints (Rawls &
Turnquist, 2011) to ensure the probability of meeting demand and the average
shipment distance is within a specified parameter. In addition to the prepositioning
of relief inventories, a disaster response may require the formulation of policies that
require the expansion of warehouses, medical facilities, and temporary shelters,
while infrastructure preparation may include the provision of airstrips and ramp
space at existing airfields (Salmeron & Apte, 2010). Koavacs and Spens (2009)
weighed the difference between traditional commercial logistics and humanitarian
logistics. With humanitarian logistics, it is imperative to go beyond the profitability of
commercial logistics. Within the domain of humanitarian logistics, suppliers have
different motivations for participating, and customers do not generate voluntary
demand. It is clear that in most cases a “repeat purchase” is not a possibility. Thus,
supply networks must take into account the lack of true demand. Demand is
dictated by the relief agencies that are the primary actors within this framework.
Therefore, it is the responsibility of the agency to “push” the supplies to the disaster
location in the immediate response phase, which is different from the commercial
philosophy of pull-based demand. Humanitarian logistics focuses on getting the
greatest volume of supplies to the points where they are needed, and there may be
lessons learned in the commercial sector that could be used to improve the planning
and execution of strategies that could be implemented during a disaster response.
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III.
Disaster Life Cycles
The life cycle of a disaster from the perspective of Humanitarian Assistance
and Disaster Relief (HADR) is divided into three stages (as illustrated in Figure 2):
being prepared in the pre-disaster stage, response as the disaster strikes, and
recovery in post-disaster (Apte 2009; Van Wassenhove, 2006).
RESPONSE
PREPAREDNESS
RECOVERY
Asset
Prepositioning
Infrastructure
Preparation
Pre-Disaster
Ramp
Up
Ramp
Down
Sustainment
Disaster Event
Post-Disaster
Figure 2. Life Cycle of Disasters
(Apte, 2009)
Disaster preparedness is the first step in mitigating the adverse impacts of
any unforeseen catastrophic event. Preparedness on an individual level is defined
by the creation of an escape and survival plan, as well as the procurement and
storage of supplies that will enable an individual to act on the plan. Preparedness at
an…
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